York has 100% likelihood of being a Covid hotspot, according to researchers

Cases are in the rise

A ‘Covid calculator’ has estimated the probability that regions across the UK will become coronavirus “hotspots” – with York given a 100 per cent rating.

The tool, created by Imperial College London researchers, uses the latest test data to predict the probability of an area being a hotspot in the next one, two and three weeks.

York is given a 100 per cent probability rating – with surrounding areas Selby at 96 per cent, East Riding of Yorkshire 100 per cent, Ryedale 92 per cent, Hambleton 99 per cent and Harrogate 100 per cent.

It says the probability of an R rate greater than 1 in York is 100 per cent.

The most recent case figures show the Fulford, Heslington and University area of the city has the highest number of positive coronavirus results with 39 confirmed cases between September 27 and October 3.

It was followed by Tang Hall with 24 cases, city centre with 23, Heworth South and The Groves with 24 and Holgate East with 23.

But all areas have recorded positive cases in the past week.

Watch list decision delayed

City of York Council was expecting to find out tomorrow, Friday, if York would be on the government watch list after coronavirus rates soared in the city.

The Government is considering changing the watch list system to a three-tier approach to coronavirus restrictions.

Leaked Government documents reveal that the new three-tier restrictions system will be announced on Monday and come into force on Wednesday next week.

Pubs and restaurants in coronavirus hotspots could also face fresh restrictions after Downing Street said new data suggests there is “significant” transmission taking place in hospitality settings.

But a spokesperson for the council has today said they are unlikely to receive any significant update this week – as the Government has postponed an announcement until Monday.

Public health official Fiona Phillips told the BBC earlier this week that should would be “very surprised” if the city was not included among the areas of concern.