Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the John Smith’s meeting 2016, Day 2

Looking ahead to another great season… Photograph: York Racecourse
8 Jul 2016 @ 9.21 am
| Sport

The tipsters’ table, York Races, Saturday, July 9, 2016

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinSunTimesThe GuardianDaily MailAt The RacesGG.com
1.55pmDundunahTimeless FlightStarlight RomanceDundunahDundunahDundunahDundunah
2.25pmThe Cashel Man (nb)The Cashel ManMagic Circle (nb)MonotypeThe Cashel ManThe Cashel ManMonotype
3.00pmOne Word MoreOne More WordFirmamentFirmamentOne Word MoreSwift EmperorGabrialʼs Kaka
3.40pmQuest For MoreBarsantiQuest For MoreQuest For MoreQuest For MoreQuest For MoreBarsanti
4.15pmOasis Fantasy (nap)AzraffCarry On DeryckCarry On Deryck (nb)ArthenusCarry On DeryckTawdeea
4.50pmEaston AngelMuthmirMarshaMuthmirOut DoKachyEaston Angel
5.20pmFayezIn First PlaceFayezFayezCuppacoffeeFayezIn First Place

It’s John Smith’s day at Knavesmire and YorkMix tipster and man-about-town Dick Turpin is all set to bash the bookies again.

[Though a measly one winner yesterday (at 6/5) was hardly anything to write home about, Dick… Ed]

Turpin writes:

All the pointers today are that Carry On Deryck will justify likely favouritism in the John Smith’s Cup.

But this 10-furlong spectacular is known for throwing up extraordinary results. Carry On Deryck’s Ascot failure is being attributed to a poor field position, opting for the wrong side of the track.

But even if the Mulrenan / bin Suroor partnership get it right this time, there is a host of others that can claim the £124,000 crown.

Uppermost on Turpin’s list is Oasis Fantasy who impressed last time at York, and looks the value bet of the day (though e.w. is advised).

Of the rest, Tawdeea, Revolutionist, Basem and Elbereth appeal most.

Turpin’s tips

1.55

Win: Dundunah
Place: Timeless Flight
Longshot: Horrob

2.25

Win: The Cashel Man (n.b)
Place: Galizzi
Longshot: Corona Borealis

3.00

Win: One Word More
Place: Gabrial’s Kaka
Longshot: Ghalib

3.40

Win: Quest For More
Place: Seamour
Longshot: Curbyourenthusiasm

4.15

Win: Oasis Fantasy (Nap)
Place: Tawdeea
Longshot: Revolutionist

4.50

Win: Easton Angel
Place: Kachy
Longshot: Marsha

5.20

Win: Fayez
Place: Champion Harbour
Longshot: Franca Florio


From Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the John Smith’s meeting 2016, Day 1 9.21am

Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the John Smith’s meeting 2016, Day 1

The tipsters’ table, York Races, Friday, July 8, 2016

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinSunTimesThe GuardianDaily MailAt The RacesGG.com
1.50pmNaaferNaaferNaaferNaaferNaaferRubiesnpearlsNaafer
2.20pmRosebride (nb)RosebrideRosebrideMerry BanterVonaRosebrideRosebride
2.55pmThesme (nap)BogartEl AstronauteFredrickaCelebrationThesmeThesme
3.30pmFlyboyFlyboyDe Veer CliffsDe Veer CliffsFlyboy (nap)De Veer CliffsIstanbul Bey
4.00pmBesharahLa RiojaMayfair LadyMayfair Lady (nap)Mayfair LadyBesharahMayfair Lady
4.30pmCentral SquareCentral SquareYorkiddingCentral SquareCentral SquareCentral SquareCentral Square
5.05pmTawdheefTawdheefQuick 'n' QuirklyQuick 'n' QuirklyDawaaTawdheefCompany Asset

It’s a two-day party at York Racecourse, as the John Smith’s Cup meeting hits town.

It features the richest-ever running of the John Smith’s Cup on Saturday with a cool £200K up for grabs.

So who to back? Over to YorkMix‘s very own tipster…

Turpin writes:

Hi everyone, I would have got here a bit earlier, but Black Bess insisted on making her way to the YorkMix office by detouring down Stonegate to see what had been done about the asphalt street repairs that clogged up her hooves last time we were in town.

Pleased to report that the black stuff has gone, to be replaced by stone once again. She wasn’t too sure about the perfect symmetry of the slab-laying team.

We’re not used to straight lines in York, and it was a bit disconcerting for the edgy equine. Turpin will reserve judgement until the stones have bedded in. So he will probably pass comment on them around 2116.

It’s Summer Stakes day at Knavesmire on Friday (July 8), the ideal curtain-raiser to the Saturday’s spectacular John Smith’s Cup.

The main race (4.00) promises a good battle between the fillies over a sharp six furlongs with connections expecting Mayfair Lady to do well, but Divine’s recent Curragh win, and La Rioja’s eye-catching performance in the Commonwealth Cup, both merit consideration.

Turpin, however, likes the word coming from the Haggas stables that last year’s Lowther winner, Besharah, is flying at home, after a good showing in the French 1000 Guineas.

Nap selection goes to Thesme in the day’s most competitive handicap, the fascinating 19-runner third race (2.55). Nigel Tinkler’s ‘top weight’ impressed Turpin at the Dante meeting, and this outing looks tailor-made for success.

Jockey Rachel Richardson always does well for the Malton yard and her claim gives a very useful 5lb pull over the brisk five furlongs. Strong competition comes from Fredricka, Celebration, Excessible, and Turpin’s longshot suggestion, Bogart.

Next best selection is Rosebride, in the 2.20 seven-runner nursery over five furlongs.

She ran a little green on her debut at Leicester but still managed an encouraging second to Pretty Vacant, and when she followed up with a comfy victory at Ripon last month she earned a three-star rating in Turpin’s notebook.

Turpin’s tips

1.50

Win: Naafer
Place: Rubiesnpearls
Longshot: Fashion Queen

2.20

Win: Rosebride (n.b.)
Place: Vona
Longshot: Merry Banter

2.55

Win: Thesme (Nap)
Place: Celebration
Longshot: Bogart

3.30

Win: Flyboy
Place: De Veer Cliffs
Longshot: Berlusca

4.00

Win: Besharah
Place: La Rioja
Longshot: Mayfair Lady

4.30

Win: Central Square
Place: Argus
Longshot: Top Tug

5.05

Win: Tawdheef
Place: Company Asset
Longshot: Dawaa

A note from Turpin about betting

Whether you are going to Knavesmire or just popping down to your local turf accountant, don’t make the mug-punter mistake of betting to a level stake across all races.

Bookies love to hear punters say, “I’m going to have a pound on every race”. In the long run, it is almost impossible to come out ahead.

It’s how they make their money. Think on that when you’re wearing out your shoe leather plodding back to town via Micklegate or Bishy Road as the bookies flash by in their Daimlers and Bentleys.

To stand a chance, Turpin reckons, you need to pick the two (or three) races in which you have most confidence in your selection, then place a disproportionately large amount of your betting money on those selections, with tiny nominal amounts on the remaining races.

At the very least, you will lose no more than if you had played the losers’ level stakes game. And a win from just one of your main selections should be enough to pay for your day.

If you bet level stakes, on average, you would need to pick two or three winners in a seven-race card just to come out even.

So, today, for example, Turpin will be placing 40-50 per cent of his betting money on his nap selection (2.55: Thesme) with 20-25 per cent going on his next best (2.20: Rosebride).

The remaining 25-40 per cent of his pot will be split equally between the other five races (5 – 8 per cent of his stash on each of the other races).

As with all betting (and tipping) there can be no guarantees, but this ‘differential staking’ plan ensures an interest in every race, and a welcome boost when you do get the big decisions right.