Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the Ebor Festival 2015, Day 4

It's time to get back in the saddle for the new racing season. Photograph: York Racecourse
22 Aug 2015 @ 11.03 am
| Sport

The tipsters’ table, York Races, Saturday, August 22, 2015

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinSunMirrorTimesThe GuardianDaily MailAt The RacesGG.com
2.00pmMondialisteTop Notch Tonto (nb)GabrialTop Notch TontoTop Notch TontoMondialisteMondialisteMondialiste
2.35pmHernandoshideawayWonder LaishYorkiddingAl (nap)HernandoshideawayKing BoleteHernandoshideawayWonder Laish
3.10pmAjaya (nb)King Of Rooks (nap)Steady PaceAjayaOde To EveningAjayaFinneganBuratino
3.45pmFields Of Athenry (nap)Quick JackWadi Al HattawiNearly CaughtClondaw WarriorAjman Bridge (nap)Fields Of AthenryFields Of Athenry
4.20pmOrnateOrnateRouleauOrnateOrnate (nap)Ornate (nap)OrnateOrnate
4.55pmMunaaserEarth DrummerElhaamePacifyPolar ForestEarth DrummerMunaaserEarth Drummer
5.25pmScent Of SummerHandsome DudeHandsome DudeForeign DiplomatOlivia FallowScent Of SummerLightscameraactionImtiyaaz

Three thrilling days of racing at Knavesmire already this week. Now here comes a fourth, with the Betfred Ebor handicap and the Gimcrack Stakes as the centrepieces.

YorkMix tipster Dick Turpin is hoping to round off the festival in fine style, having scooped the Placepot on Wednesday (with his Win and Place selections through the card), and scored five from six in the Placepot on Thursday and Friday.

Turpin writes:

The big buzz today surrounds Finnegan, likely favourite in the Gimcrack (3.10). I hesitate to put anyone off backing the American flying machine.

But his withdrawal at Royal Ascot (colic) was a worry, and though he should be back to full fitness today, there remains a lingering question mark over him.

I prefer to side with the stable of the week, William Haggas, to provide a good price winner in Ajaya, mightily impressive recently in a very narrow defeat in a French Group 2 race.

For the Ebor itself (3.45) I really like the look of Astronereus and Fields Of Athenry. Astronereus impressed here last month over the same distance and should be in the frame.

But I have to side with Fields Of Athenry, Aidan O’Brien’s well-bred Galileo colt. Some good performances in Ireland have already made him a hot property for the St Leger next month, and this 1m 6f looks well within his grasp.

Turpin’s tips

2.00

Win: Mondialiste
Place: Convey
Longshot: Gabrial

2.35

Win: Hernandoshideaway
Place: King Bolete
Longshot: Antiquarium

3.10

Win: Ajaya (n.b.)
Place: Buratino
Longshot: Raucous

3.45

Win: Fields Of Athenry (nap)
Place: Astronereus
Longshot: Wadi Al Hattawi

4.20

Win: Ornate
Place: Riflescope

4.55

Win: Munaaser
Place: Roseberg
Longshot: Off Art

5.25

Win: Scent Of Summer
Place: Moonraker
Longshot: Lightscameraction


From August 21, 2015

Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the Ebor Festival 2015, Day 3

The tipsters’ table, York Races, Friday, August 21, 2015

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinRacing PostSunMirrorTimesThe GuardianDaily MailAt The RacesGG.com
1.55pmMemorial DayCurbyourenthusiasmPenhillChanceryMistiroc (nap)Top TugMighty YarCurbyourenthusiasimChancery
2.30pmClever CookieTac de BoistronBig Orange (nb)Big OrangeClever CookieMax DynamiteClever CookieMizzouBig Orange
3.05pmSo Beloved (nb)FadhayyilFadhayyil (nap)Short SqueezeFadhayyilBossy GuestSo Beloved (nb)So BelovedSo Beloved
3.40pmMuthmir (nap)AcapulcoMuthmirMuthmirAcapulco (nb)Acapulco (nap)MuthmirMecca's AngelAcapulco
4.20pmVery TalentedPalmetto DunesAmber MystiquePalmetto DunesMansonVery TalentedBeautiful MorningVery TalentedAmber Mystique
4.55pmMaster Of IronySahaafyTalyaniAshridge LadRifle RangeTalyani (nb)Get KnottedTalyaniMaster Of Irony

It’s Nunthorpe day at Knavesmire, and it promises to live up to its reputation as Yorkshire’s fastest cavalry charge.

But on a day of huge fields, with nearly every race having 20 runners, picking just one winner will be a tough task.

Considering how he met his end, it was perhaps a little tactless for YorkMix to ask our tipster Dick Turpin to stick his neck out and pick a winner in the six-furlong feature race. But we did anyway.

Turpin writes:

You can make out a good case for at least eight of this year’s Nunthorpe runners. Mecca’s Angel, Sole Power, Mattmu and Goldream all come to mind.

But I expect the winner to be either Acapulco or the very exciting Muthmir. Acapulco’s Royal Ascot performance rightly will place her as favourite today.

But it’s a big ask for a two-year-old to triumph in the Nunthorpe. This big field, and the fast-changing going makes that task even harder, so I am siding with Goodwood winner Muthmir in the belief that the five-year-old gelding’s greater experience will count for more.

Trainer William Haggas has had an exceptional Ebor meeting so far, and I fully expect Paul Hanagan to bring Muthmir home safely – at a pretty good price too.

Turpin’s tips

1.55

Win: Memorial Day
Place: Top Tug
Longshot: Chancery

2.30

Win: Clever Cookie
Place: Mizzou

3.05

Win: So Beloved (nb)
Place: Fadhayyil
Longshot: Tanzeel

3.40

Win: Muthmir (nap)
Place: Acapulco
Longshot: Goldream

4.20

Win: Very Talented
Place: Amber Mystique
Longshot: Manson

4.55

Win: Master Of Irony
Place: Talyani
Longshot: Ashridge Lad


From August 20, 2015

Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the Ebor Festival 2015, Day 2

The tipsters’ table, York Races, Thursday, August 20, 2015

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinRacing PostSunMirrorTimesThe GuardianDaily MailTelegraphAt The RacesGG.com
1.55pmMr LuptonTasleetTasleet (nap)TasleetDeliziaTasleetTasleetProjectionTasleetTasleet
2.30pmLumiere (nb)BesharaAshadihan (nb)BesharahQuiet Reflection (nap)LumiereEaston AngelQuiet ReflectionLumiereLumiere
3.05pmHe's No SaintChil The KiteYou're FiredAlfred HutchinsonYou’re Fired (nb)You're Fired (nb)Mange AllWestern ReserveWestern ReserveMusaddas
3.40pmCovert Love (nap)Covert LoveCovert LoveJack NaylorCovert LoveSea CalisiCovert LoveCovert LoveLady Of DubaiCovert Love
4.20pmSuffusedSuffusedBright ApproachDesert SnowKooraJordan PrincessSuffusedMartletBright ApproachJordan Princess
4.55pmSpangledSpangledSpangledDusky QueenSpangledSpangled (nap)Dusky Queen (nap)SpangledMistrustingMistrusting

In the end, as predicted, the Juddmonte was a thrilling race. But, not quite the thrill YorkMix’s tipster Dick Turpin predicted!

The withdrawal of Gleneagles due to the softer ground turned out to be a wise decision. The prolonged overnight rain also accounted for Golden Horn’s chances.

The final battle did not feature the disappointing Time Test; instead it was the outsider Arabian Queen (her chances having been casually dismissed by Dick) and the hot favourite Derby-winning Golden Horn battling it out to the line.

The 50-1 shot prevailed by a neck, with Frankie Dettori’s favourite briefly heading the eventual winner in the final furlong, but failing to hold on against the athletic filly.

But was our Dick deterred? Not at all. If you followed his tips yesterday, you would still have had a great day.

With winners in the second, third and fifth races (Recorder 4/1; Storm The Stars 3/1; Heartbreak City 7/1) Turpin outshone all his rivals in the national press.

Today, it’s down to earth with a bump for dastardly Dick.

Our tame highwayman writes:

The Yorkshire Oaks (3.40) looks tailor-made for Hugo Palmer’s Covert Love, looking for a five-timer, the impressive filly has already seen off both Jack Naylor and Curvy at the Curragh last month.

That pair look the likely rivals again today, with France’s Sea Calisi something of an interesting unknown quantity.

Meanwhile, I hear a strong stable word for Lumiere in the Lowther Stakes 6f sprint.

The Mark Johnston flying filly looks set to justify favourite status. In the last (4.55) Roger Varian’s Spangled looks set to get the better of the promising Mistrusting.

Turpin’s tips

1.55

Win: Mr Lupton
Place: Orvar
Longshot: Projection

2.30

Win: Lumiere (nb)
Place: Besharah

3.05

Win: He’s No Saint
Place: Musaddas
Longshot: Chil The Kite

3.40

Win: Covert Love (nap)
Place: Sea Calisi
Longshot: Jack Naylor

4.20

Win: Suffused
Place: Bright Approach
Longshot: Martlet

4.55

Win: Spangled
Place: Mistrusting
Longshot: Secret Hint


From August 19, 2015

Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the Ebor Festival 2015, Day 1

The tipsters’ table, York Races, Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinRacing PostSunMirrorTimesThe GuardianDaily MailTelegraphAt The RacesGG.com
1.55pmDutch MasterpieceBogartBogartArctic FeelingHighland AcclaimIndescribableDesert LawBogartDutch MasterpieceHuntsmans Close
2.30pmRecorder (nb)AdventurousCymric (nap)Lieutenant GeneralBing Bang Bong (nap)AdventurousMohabLieutenant General (nb)RecorderLieutenant General
3.05pmStorm The StarsStorm The StarsBondi BeachBondi BeachStorm The StarsTashaarGiovanni CanalettoTashaarTashaarStorm The Stars
3.40pmGolden Horn (nap)Golden HornGolden HornThe Grey GatsbyTime TestGolden HornGolden HornGolden HornGolden HornGolden Horn
4.20pmHeartbreak CityBig ThunderBig ThunderSaved By The BellCardinal Palace (nb)Heartbreak City (nb)Saved By The BellHighland CastleHeartbreak CityBig Thunder
4.55pmWhitmanWhitmanDark DefenderDark DefenderDark DefenderQuick N QuirkyShawaahid (nap)Quick N QuirkyTawwaaqWhitman

It’s hard to imagine a better race anywhere in the world this year than the drama we are likely to see unfold at Knavesmire shortly after 3.40 on Wednesday afternoon (August 19), writes YorkMix tipster Dick Turpin.

The 1m 2f Juddmonte International Stakes is the highlight of the meeting, attracting a world-class field attempting to take on this year’s Derby winner, Golden Horn.

The Epsom victor will undoubtedly be a warm favourite, and is Turpin’s selection too.

But, even in the capable hands of Frankie Dettori, the John Gosden-trained superstar colt might not have everything going his way.

The recent heavy rain raises at least one serious question-mark, and may offer hope for backers looking for a decent-priced rival to support.

But the appearance of Dick Doughtywylie is confirmation that Gosden is taking nothing for granted, as Golden Horn’s stablemate is taking part only as a pacemaker.

Apart from Dick Doughtywylie, Turpin is safely eliminating the filly Arabian Queen from consideration, after failing to impress at Goodwood.

Trainer David Hayes’ Criterion, a New Zealand colt, is a something of an unknown quantity, but the scant form suggests competing at Group 1 level will be beyond him.

Too much to do

Turpin is also excluding Aidan O’Brien’s Cougar Mountain from consideration, with just too much to do against a field that includes the season’s superstars.

O’Brien’s other runner, Gleneagles, with son Joseph on board, is a different proposition altogether. The dual 2,000 Guineas winner has an outstanding chance, and any misjudgement by Frankie could see him triumph.

Last year’s runner-up, The Grey Gatsby, a Knavesmire regular for local trainer Kevin Ryan, has already been well beaten by Golden Horn, and only his familiarity with the track, and the unknown factor of the going, gives him any real shout of a chance.

Easily the most interesting rival to the selection is Roger Charlton’s Time Test, whose stunning Royal Ascot win puts him in with a real chance.

But Turpin’s friends at the stable report that there’s a real buzz that their charge might lift the £518,000 prize.

Dettori was also clearly impressed by Time Test’s performance, but the former champion jockey will have to make some serious errors if his Golden Horn is to finish anything other than a couple of lengths ahead of the field.

By the time Frankie is lining up for the Juddmonte, it’s not inconceivable that he could be looking for a four-timer.

He has genuinely good prospects in the first three races too with Lucky Beggar, Recorder (nb), and Tashaar.

Turpin’s tips

1.55

Win: Dutch Masterpiece
Place: Highland Acclaim
Longshot: Lucky Beggar

2.30

Win: Recorder (nb)
Place: Adventurous

3.05

Win: Storm The Stars
Place: Tashaar

3.40

Win: Golden Horn (nap)
Place: Time Test

4.20

Win: Heartbreak City
Place: Big Thunder
Longshot: Oasis Fantasy

4.55

Win: Whitman
Place: Tawwaaq
Longshot: Quoteline Direct