Who’ll win at York Races, Dante Festival, day three – May 16, 2014?

And they're off… Photograph: York Racecourse
14 May 2014 @ 9.52 am
| Sport
And they're off… Photograph: York Racecourse
And they’re off… Photograph: York Racecourse

The tipsters' table, York Races, Friday, May 16, 2014

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

TipsterDick TurpinRacing PostAt The RacesSunGG.comTelegraphThe TimesThe Guardian
1.45Don't Tell AnnieTiggy WiggyDon't Tell AnnieTiggy WiggyTiggy WiggySaristaDon't Tell AnnieTiggy Wiggy
2.15Arab SpringArab SpringArab SpringArab Spring (nb)Arab SpringItlaaqChanceryAmralah
2.45Gospel ChoirTac de BoistronGospel ChoirTac de BoistronTac de BoistronCamborneTiger Cliff (nap)Seal Of Approval
3.15QawaasemQawaasemRadiatorAdhwaaRadiatorAzagalRadiatorPelerin
3.50G ForceG ForcePiazonPiazonPiazonG ForceG Force (nb)G Force
4.25Dusky Queen (nb)Dusky QueenTight FitDusky QueenTight FitPatrona ClanaAlice's DancerTight Fit
5.00Latin CharmLatin CharmLatin CharmLatin CharmLatin CharmRite To ReignRite To Reign

 

Turpin’s tips for day three

Sir Michael Stoute brings a strong entry to York today, and no-one would be surprised if the grand campaigner walked off with a double or even a treble. Arab Spring (2.15) and Gospel Choir (2.45) both have outstanding chances, as does Radiator (3.15).

1.45

It might be a mistake to ignore both Tiggy Wiggy and Patience Alexander in the first race. They are likely to head the betting, and they do have a great chance.

But Turpin is all about value for money. And few come better qualified in that regard than Don’t Tell Annie, who caught the eye with an easy win at Pontefract, beating horses that have further stamped the form.

Sarista deserves inclusion in consideration for her promising win at Ripon, and is clearly destined for big things.

Exentricity appears held on her second to Tiggy Wiggy at Salisbury 12 days ago, but Mick Channon clearly rates her, and William Twiston-Davies will give this good value outsider a genuine chance of a place.

Win: Don’t Tell Annie; EW: Sarista; Longshot: Exentricity

2.15

Arab Spring makes huge appeal – and will be carrying half of Turpin’s betting money for the day.

Whilst Turpin always tries to avoid the obvious choices, this likely short-priced favourite can not be ignored, after a great maiden win at Kempton followed by a Doncaster success, both at ten furlongs.

The extra two furlongs here suggest Sir Michael has supreme confidence in the staying power of this son of Monsun – and classic targets beckon.

Take your pick for the places, Amralah, Itlaaq or Chancery, with Shalaman also worth consideration at a lengthy price.

Win: Arab Spring (Nap); EW: Amralah; Longshot: Shalaman

2.45

Glen’s Diamond returns to the scene of his Yorkshire Cup victory last year. Connections are quietly optimistic, but Richard Fahey’s charge faces much bigger rivals this time.

Gospel Choir (Sir Michael Stoute again), and Tac De Boistron are Turpin’s idea of the winner and runner-up.

If the ground softens further, it would favour Tac De Boistron more. Seal Of Approval could be a value choice for a place.

Win: Gospel Choir; EW: Tac De Boistron; Longshot: Seal Of Approval

3.15

Will the extra furlong make all the difference for Sir Michael Stoute’s Radiator, beaten last year (in the Oh So Sharp Stakes) by subsequent 1,000 Guineas winner Miss France?

Confidence is high among connections, but Turpin takes a contrary view, and reckons Qawaasem has an outstanding chance to impress here. Pelerin and Folk Melody appeal too.

And Adhwaa and Azagal both vie for longshot claims.

Win: Qawaasem; EW: Pelerin; Longshot: Adhwaa

3.50

A sparkling five-furlong 20-runner contest. A good case could be made for at least eight of these, with Turpin plumping for G Force, and planning to avoid the betting ring for this difficult-to-judge race, and will savour the spectacle from the stands.

Win: G Force; EW: Piazon; Longshot: Outer Space

4.25

After the distractions of the earlier races, don’t ignore this seven-furlong sparkler which may be a straight contest between Dusky Queen and Tight Fit.

Tight Fit is bang in form, and the question here is whether course-and-distance winner Dusky Queen is right on the day. A fascinating tussle is on the cards.

Patrona Ciana and Alice’s Dancer are the best of the rest.

Win: Dusky Queen (nb); EW: Tight Fit; Longshot: Alice’s Dancer

5.00

Latin Charm is an easy choice for this final race of the meeting.

Whilst John Gosden’s top-weight Votary has sound claims, and Innocent Touch and Mairise can not be easily ignored either, Turpin takes Marco Botti’s charge to step up from his ten-furlong second at Doncaster last month.

Win: Latin Charm; EW: Mairise; Longshot: Votary

Turpin’s tipping verdict, day two

Day Two at Knavesmire was something of a bookies’ benefit again!

With no favourites winning (or even coming second) in the first six Jackpot races, and 16-1 outsiders coming first and second in the last, the only joy for Turpin came with longer-priced winners Navajo Chief 15-2 and Shamson (9-1), the highwayman’s each-way and longshot selections scoring for Fallon and Dettori.

The national tipsters fared far worse. From 56 selections (eight tipsters, seven races) only six were winners.

Unsurprisingly, the Jackpot was not won, and a whopping £25,585 is carried forward to today. The Placepot of £1,473 reflects just how hard it was to find any selection to make the frame.

Can Turpin come good on the final day of the Dante meeting? Black Bess certainly hopes so. She is running low on oats, and Turpin’s funds are so low that he may have to resort to his former career.

 
 


Thursday 15th May 2014

Who’ll win at York Races, Dante Festival, day two – May 15, 2014?

Turpin’s tips for day two

Could this be Kieren Fallon’s day? He’s on board likely favourite True Story in the six-runner feature race, the Betfred Dante Stakes at 2.45, writes YorkMix tipster Dick Turpin.

It is hard to make out a stronger case for any of his other high quality rivals there.

Fallon also has two other promising rides in Desert Law (1.45) and Navajo Chief (3.15).

1.45

What a great way to start Dante Day! A 20-runner cavalry charge over a sharp five furlongs.

Desert Law might get Fallon off to a flyer at a good price.

But the vote goes to Jason Hart on board Thirsk trainer David Barron’s Long Awaited, an encouraging fourth just a fortnight ago on his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood.

Ballesteros, Ashpan Sam and Judge ‘n’ Jury should also be in the shake-up. Ballesteros should emerge best of that bunch.

Win: Long Awaited; EW: Ballesteros; Longshot: Desert Law

2.15

Little chance of Fallon scoring here on Sinaadi, a clear 50-1, even a 100-1, outsider.

Turpin’s idea of the winner comes in the shape of Thistle Bird (Frankie Dettori), with Secret Gesture (Jamie Spencer on board) likely to be snapping at his heels.

Expect a good showing from Tom Queally’s mount, The Lark, who could spring a nice surprise at tasty odds.

Win: Thistle Bird; EW: Secret Gesture; Longshot: The Lark

2.45

The feature race looks made for Saeed bin Suroor’s True Story.

Kieren Fallon can be relied on for a great steering job, at the main expense of the Dettori/ Hannon entry, Bunker, coming to York after 277 days without a race.

Win: True Story (Nap); EW: Bunker

3.15

Form is everything, and Ingleby Angel is Turpin’s idea of a horse coming to its best.

Finishing fifth and second in his first two outings this year, the five-year-old gelding may be well down the handicap, but Helmsley’s David O’Meara is a good judge, and this mile could be the perfect race for him.

He gets the nod over likely joint favourite, Fort Bastion. The other expected joint favourite, Queensberry Rules may be in need of the race.

And there is always Kieren Fallon, waiting in the wings to pounce with good-priced longshot Navajo Chief.

Win: Ingleby Angel; EW: Fort Bastion; Longshot: Navajo Chief

3.50

Being something of a Beatles fan, Turpin is highly amused by the name Hay Chewed (say it quickly, folks), but can the outsider win this?

And the answer comes: “Na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na…”

This highwayman will be siding with David Elsworth’s flying machine, Justice Day. The long lay-off is a slight worry, but the clear top-rated colt is money in the bank, we hope.

Shamson should trot up for the minor place in this small field.

Win: Justice Day (next best); EW: Shamson

4.25

Turpin will be watching this one from the comfort of the bar and having absolutely no bet. Nine runners of which eight will be seeing a racecourse for the first time, you’d be mad to put money on this.

The only one with experience, Portamento makes little appeal on last month’s fifth at Newmarket over five furlongs.

The extra furlong here will help. But there are surely one or two others of higher quality.

But if Turpin’s life depended on it (and, in times past, it surely has), his swag would be on Gaudy (Jamie Spencer up) to upset the likely favourite Silver Ranger, the hope of Ryan Moore and Richard Hannon.

Last year’s winning trainer, Richard Fahey, saddles Bond’s Choice, a nice-looking chestnut filly that gets the benefit of George Chaloner’s 3lb claim, and could spring a nice surprise.

Win: Gaudy; EW: Bond’s Choice

5.00

A great race to end the day on. Eighteen runners and at least six of them in with a realistic chance.

Take your pick from Cape Tribulation, Calculated Risk, Albert Bridge, Hidden Justice, Suraj and Entihaa.

And there could yet be a surprise at long odds. Albert Bridge‘s eye-catching third at Salisbury just 11 days ago is a great pointer to a horse running into form.

Longshot choice is between Mr Snoozy or Dettori’s mount, Man Of Plenty.

Win: Albert Bridge; EW: Calculated Risk; Longshot: Mr Snoozy

Turpin’s tipping verdict, day one

One has only to look at the Placepot dividend – a whopping £1,860 – to see how tough it was to pick a placed horse – let alone a winner – on day one.

The withdrawal of much-fancied Mambo Paradise in the 4.25 put a dent in YorkMix tipster Turpin’s hopes too.

Tres Coronas (second at 11-1) and Fast Shot (a creditable fourth at 14-1) were the only bright spots that kept a disconsolate Turpin from penury. He was last seen edging his way towards Yates’s at Ouse Bridge.

By way of consolation, none of the nation’s top tipsters fared any better. Out of a total of 49 other tips (seven tipsters, seven races), only four were winners.

Better luck on Dante Day, we hope.

 
 

Who’ll win at York Races, May 14, 2014?

The tipsters' table, York Races, Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

TipsterDick TurpinRacing PostAt The RacesSunGG.comTelegraphThe TimesThe Guardian
1.45Tres CoronasRye HouseRye HouseGrandorioRye HouseTres CoronasLahaag (nap)Grandorio
2.15Lancelot Du LacFast ShotFast ShotBlaineFast ShotBaccaratLancelot Du LacAetna
2.45Shama (Nap)Lily RulesShamaShamaShamaQueen Of IceQueen Of IceCambridge
3.15AstaireJack DexterMaarekTropics (Nap)Jack DexterTropicsAstaireBody And Soul (nb)
3.50SlemyThat Is The SpiritProvident SpiritIdeaProvident SpiritTea Leaf (nap)That Is The Life (nb)Tiger Twenty Two
4.25Mambo ParadiseCaptain ColbyMambo ParadiseMambo Paradise (nb)Mambo ParadiseMambo ParadiseMambo ParadiseMambo Paradise
5.00Mica MikaGabrial's StarGabrial's StarGabrial's StarGabrial's StarAstra HallRecession ProofGabrial's Star (nap)

 

York races are back!

And so is YorkMix tipster Dick Turpin, hoping to conduct some highway robbery on the bookies.

The three day Dante Festival (Wednesday, May 14 to Friday, May 16) kicks off a record-breaking season for York, with more than £6 million on offer in prize money.

And Dick Turpin is back with a swag bag full of great insight and tips for the first day of the three-day Dante meeting.

Turpin’s tips

Can it really be a whole year, my beauties, since I started sharing my top-notch information with YorkMix?

Indeed it is. And this year the Dante Festival curtain raiser welcomes back former champion jockey Frankie Dettori.

Here are my choices for day one…

A week of changeable weather may turn out to be the deciding factor on day one. The weekend weather was soggy enough to force postponement of the York City playoff match, so how has Knavesmire fared? Heavy going could make it all even more of a lottery than usual.

So, hoping for good ground and clear skies, here’s my verdict race-by-race.

1.45

A poignant renewal of the extended 1m 2f race won last year by Sir Henry Cecil’s First Mohican, just a month before the legendary trainer departed these gallops for the last time.

Of the three top weights, John Gosden’s five-year-old Lahaag looks likeliest to take the honours, but it’s a big ask on his seasonal debut. Tres Coronas could be the answer, with Rye House in the shake-up too.

My eye is also drawn to Rachel Richardson’s mount Maven. It’s a canny choice for the Easterby yard, and Rachel’s helpful 7lb claim may make all the difference in a very tricky race to judge.

My heart tempts me to plunge big-style on her for a win; but my head says, she could be a tasty 12-1 to 16-1 to fill that third place.

1.45 Win: Tres Coronas; EW: Lahaag; Longshot: Maven

2.15

It’s very hard to oppose Dean Ivory’s Lancelot Du Lac, winner here over seven furlongs last year. This shorter trip should suit too – and Jim Crowley’s mount is a solid selection.

Rachel Richardson is back again, this time with Fast Shot, a distinctly more fancied mount than her first race partner.

No one would be surprised to see the Easterby yard notch a sensational quick double, and a quick place double is even more likely. Malton’s Richard Fahey sends Baccarat into battle, and a good performance is expected at decent place odds.

Top weight Valbchek doesn’t usually get into his stride so early in the season, and is probably taking on too much at this stage of the year.

2.15 Win: Lancelot Du Lac; EW: Fast Shot; Longshot: Baccarat

2.45

The jockey-trainer combination of Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute know exactly what’s needed over the 1m 2f of the Musidora Stakes. They did it last year with Liber Nauticus.

This year it’s the turn of Shama, my nap selection for the day; I fully expect the filly to surprise favourite-backers who will be hoping for Cambridge to make her seasonal debut in winning style.

After 224 days off the track, I can’t see it happening; Shama is fresh from a winning debut last month and I confidently expect to be celebrating with champagne later in the evening in The Three Tuns, York’s newly-crowned Pub Of The Year.

William Haggas is a good judge and his beautiful chestnut Queen Of Ice should give Shama a real run for her money.

2.45 Win: Shama (Nap) EW: Queen Of Ice

3.15

Will Astaire dance his way to victory in the Duke Of York Clipper Logistic Stakes? This 6f dash is the ideal trip – and I look no further than Moviesta or Jack Dexter to fill the places.

Black Bess tells me that there is a stable whisper for Eton Rifles too. It’s hard to see, but the likely 10-1 or more makes it a contender for some Turpin EW money.

3.15 Win: Astaire; EW: Moviesta; Longshot: Eton Rifles

3.50

All eyes will be on Frankie Dettori who has had a tough time over the last couple of years. We all make mistakes, none more so than yours truly.

The glory days are over, but, even at 43 years old, Frankie still has flashes of magic. His booking by Richard Hannon for Slemy in this race and Da Doo Run Run (for Brian Meehan) in the last race both catch the eye.

Provident Spirit and That Is The Spirit are obvious choices, with Tea Leaf a likely contender too.

But something tells Turpin that this might just be the day that Frankie makes a statement of intent for the season ahead.

3.50 Win: Slemy; EW: Provident Spirit; Longshot: Tea Leaf

4.25

Can anything rival Mark Johnson’s Mambo Paradise? Followers of Richard Hannon’s Magical Roundabout seem to think so.

They are likely to fill the first two slots in this small-runner 5f blink-and-you’ll-miss-it novice race.

4.25 Win: Mambo Paradise; EW: Magical Roundabout

5.00

An interesting last race in prospect over the testing mile and a half.

This race has thrown up some fascinating big-price winners over the years, but I don’t expect any major upset. Take Paul Hanagan on Mica Mika to just tip off Ryan Moore on the likely favourite Gabrial’s Star.

5.00 Win: Mica Mika; EW: Gabrial’s Star; Longshot: Astra Hall