Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the Music Showcase Weekend, Day 2

The tipsters table, York Races, Saturday, July 29, 2017

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinSunMirrorMail OnlineTimesTelegraphAt The RacesGG.co.ukSporting Life
2.05Starlight RomanceBattered (nap)Get KnottedGet KnottedGet KnottedSalateenSalateenVon BlucherFingal's Cave
2.40Snap Shots (nb)Snap ShotsUltimate AvenueJaywalkerRasheeq (nap)Out DoMuntadabGeorge BowenAl Qahwa
3.15Autocratic (nap)Victory BondSuccess DaysHathalVictory BondVictory BondVictory BondSuccess DaysSuccess Days
3.50StaxtonHey JonesyHey JonesyStaxtonStaxtonStaxtonHey JonesyBarefoot BabyStaxton
4.25FredericSaved By The BellVercingetorixAngel GabrialVercingetorixVercingetorixFredericAngel GabrialAngel Gabrial
5.00Lady BergamotNeshmeyaCompany AssetAppointedAppointedLady BergamotLady BergamotCompany AssetFengate
5.35ChatburnJohn KirkupJive LadyMarnie JamesValidatorMarnie James (nap)ValidatorJohn KirkupValidator

Never ever say Dick Turpin doesn’t know his music. He’ll be down at the front of the stage tonight partying with All Saints as they headline the Music Showcase weekend at Knavesmire.

But before that, he hopes to be filling his pockets in an evening of top-class racing, with the York Stakes (3.15), worth £68,052 to the winner, and the fascinating Sky Bet Dash (2.40), with £31,125 for the victor.

If you want to back one of Turpin’s choices – or any of those in our tipsters’ table – find all the horse racing betting at top UK bookmaker William Hill.

Over to YorkMix’s resident tipster, your friendly highwayman, Dick Turpin.

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Turpin writes:

The best races are always something of a mystery. Will this one hold its form? Will the extra distance be too much for that one? What about the effect of a change of trainer or a new jockey?

And that’s the kind of conundrum to be unraveled in the wonderful 1m2f York Stakes (3.15).

Likely favourite Autocratic got the better of Algometer at Sandown in May, but now he’s 3lb worse off for the 1¼ length victory. That should see them dead heat! In theory, of course.

But shrewd observers reckoned David Simcock’s charge won with a bit more in hand, so he gets the vote. But they won’t have it all their own way in this eight-runner contest.

Success Days and Victory Bond both come into the equation, the latter not getting a clear run here from a poor draw in the John Smith’s Cup. Turpin has also had a whisper from the Haggas yard that Hathal, upped in trip, could spring a surprise at decent price.

Earlier, the thrilling cavalry charge that brings 20 top sprinters to the 6f Sky Bet Dash (2.40) could see George Bowen and Ultimate Avenue dominating.

But the draw is against them. Ten of the last 13 winners of the race were drawn in stall 10 or lower, and these two leaders in the betting are in 12 and 16 respectively.

Could the draw (3) and the good-to-soft going swing it for Mick Channon’s Mobsta? He’s a real outsider tonight, but the four-time winner on this going could represent the e.w. value in the race.

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Turpin, however, reckons the answer lies in the Irish raider, Snap Shots. He had a couple of tonight’s contenders behind him when second of 17 in a quality race at the Curragh a fortnight back.

That performance was on much firmer ground, but Tony Coyle’s five-year-old gelding can handle any going and ticks most boxes.

The draw (2) gives outsider Al Qahwa a lively chance to make the frame too.

The opening race (2.05) sees Get Knotted attempt to repeat last year’s success. But Richard Fahey’s gelding is likely to come up against three in top form: Battered, Salateen and Starlight Romance.

Preference, just, is for the latter, after winning two of her four starts this year, and an impressive second at Chester last time.

In the 1m2f handicap (5.00), Turpin’s spies have sent a strong word for Lady Bergamot. A 20lb advantage over the impressive Company Asset should be enough to see her home, with Neshmeya the chief danger.

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Turpin’s tips

2.05

Win: Starlight Romance
Place: Battered
Longshot: Get Knotted

2.40

Win: Snap Shots (N.B)
Place: Al Qahwa
Longshot: Mobsta

3.15

Win: Autocratic (Nap)
Place: Algometer
Longshot: Hathal

3.50

Win: Staxton
Place: Hey Jonsey
Longshot: Barefoot Baby

4.25

Win: Frederic
Place: Vercingetorix
Longshot: Graceful Lady

5.00

Win: Lady Bergamot
Place: Company Asset
Longshot: Empress Ali

5.35

Win: Chatburn
Place: Validator
Longshot: Marnie James


From July 28, 2017 8.48 am

Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the Music Showcase Weekend, Day 1

The tipsters table, York Races, Friday, July 28, 2017

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinSunMirrorMail OnlineTimesTelegraphAt The RacesGG.co.ukSporting Life
6.00ZehrahBreanskiBreanskiBrother McGonagallBreanskiBreanskiBrother McGonagallBrother McGonagallBrother McGonagall
6.30Pomme De TerreKibaarPomme de TerreLexington TimesPomme De TerreFoxy ForeverLaughtonFoxy ForeverFoxy Forever
7.00Pacific Fleet (nb)Laugh A MinuteLaugh A MinuteLaugh A MinutePacific FleetFortune's PearlLaugh A MinuteFortuneʼs PearlFortune's Pearl
7.30Aim To Please (nap)Ajman PrincessAim To PleaseAjman PrincessVery DashingAjman PrincessAim To PleaseAjman PrincessAjman Princess
8.00Calder PrinceCandelisaCalder PrinceInnocent TouchTwo For TwoPalmerstonHome CumminsKharbetationInnocent Touch
8.30Sheepscar LadDakota GoldBatten The HatchesDakota GoldSheepscar LadDakota GoldSheepscar LadDakota GoldDakota Gold

Pop princess Jess Glynne tops the bill at Knavesmire tonight (Friday, July 28).

The 27-year-old singer-songwriter from London burst on the scene just four years ago, scoring five No 1 hits by the end of 2015.

Her work includes notable collaborations with Tinie Tempah, Route 94 and the irrepressible Clean Bandit.

YorkMix’s resident bandit will be there to enjoy the show too. But first, our helpful highwayman hopes to bag some booty from the six-race evening card at England’s finest racecourse.

If you want to back one of Turpin’s choices – or any of those in our tipsters’ table – find all the horse racing betting at top UK bookmaker William Hill.

Over to you, Dick Turpin.

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Turpin writes:

All eyes will be on one filly later tonight when Jess Glynne graces the stage. But it is the fillies on show in the prestigious EBF Lyric Stakes (7.30) that will catch my interest first.

The 11-runner contest pitches Sir Michael Stoute’s course and distance winner Playful Sound against Roger Varian’s Goodwood star Ajman Princess.

But my preference is for the value bet of the race, Aim To Please. A winner at up to nine furlongs for Francois Doumen, the £340,000 buy is now switched to Karl Burke’s care.

The shrewd Leyburn trainer has surely seen something extra in the filly who performed well at Royal Ascot (fifth in the Duke of Cambridge) last month, and this extended 1m2f race looks the perfect stage to spring an upset.

As with earlier meetings at Knavesmire this year, the weather will be a significant factor.

At the time of writing, the going is Good, but yesterday’s steady early rain may have moved that to the Soft side, and any further overnight rain could see a repeat of the very soft ground lottery that nearly broke our bank in May, as long-odds winners defeated all the fancied steeds.

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Turpin loves to find a value bet… and I think the seven-furlong Best One And Xtra Local Novice Median Auction Stakes (7.00), offers just that.

All eyes will be on Roger Varian’s Laugh A Minute, to see if the colt can fulfil his debut promise. A beaten favourite (third) on his first outing at Ascot two weeks ago, this swift reappearance looks intended to set the record straight.

But there is better value, surely, in Archie Watson’s Pacific Fleet, also third on debut last month.

He ran a little green over Redcar’s five furlongs, but the performance suggested that a longer race might be the answer.

Seven furlongs should suit and, as long as the softening ground doesn’t become bottomless, is in with a big chance. He’s a cautious ‘Next Best’ selection, but should represent good each-way value.

The opener (6.00) is an interesting contest, giving Simon Crisford’s filly Zehrah a chance to atone for a third at Nottingham over ten furlongs earlier this month.

Tonight’s extended mile is just short of 1m1f, and the shorter trip should be enough to give her a huge chance against likely market leaders Breanski and Bother McGonagall.

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Before you dash off to catch Jess on the main stage, don’t miss the fine handicap contest in the last race (8.30).

The five-furlong dash should see Dakota Gold and Batten The Hatches in the shake-up, along with Westow trainer Paul Midgeley’s Catterick winner Yorkshire Debut.

But Turpin reckons there might be a better bet altogether. Sheepscar Lad was hugely impressive going from near-last to first at Pontefract 17 days ago. The handicapper clearly thought that run was exceptional too and raised the gelding 7lb in the weights.

Talented apprentice Lewis Edmunds is on board this time and takes off 5lbs of that penalty. That could be just enough to give us a lovely wallet-filling win.

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Turpin’s tips

6.00

Win: Zehrah
Place: Breanski
Longshot: Rinaria

6.30

Win: Pomme De Terre
Place: Lexington Times
Longshot: B Fifty Two

7.00

Win: Pacific Fleet (n.b.)
Place: Laugh A Minute
Longshot: High Seas

7.30

Win: Aim To Please (Nap)
Place: Ajman Princess
Longshot: Playful Sound

8.00

Win: Calder Prince
Place: Kharbetation
Longshot: Innocent Touch

8.30

Win: Sheepscar Lad
Place: Dakota Gold
Longshot: Twizzell